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KIDPIK CORP. (PIK)·Q3 2023 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2023 was operationally consistent with Q2 as Kidpik prioritized inventory sell-through and cost control while maintaining gross margin at 61.1% amid softer demand; revenue declined 6.7% YoY to $3.39M and EPS improved to ($0.24) from ($0.32) YoY .
  • Channel mix continued to shift toward owned e-commerce (online sales +58.3% YoY) while subscription revenue fell 15.4% YoY; average keep rate rose sharply to 82.6% and shipped items fell to 292k .
  • Management initiated a formal review of strategic alternatives and is reducing expenses, selling down inventory, and undertaking workforce reductions—potential near-term stock catalysts given the breadth of options (including business combinations or asset sales) .
  • No formal quantitative guidance or S&P Global consensus estimates were available for Q3, limiting beat/miss analysis; management emphasized liquidity preservation (quarter-end cash ~$0.06M) and working capital support from inventory liquidation .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Elevated gross margin and mix improvements: GM expanded 80 bps YoY to 61.1%, with online website sales +58.3% YoY; keep rate rose to 82.6% suggesting better curation/mix .
    • Cost progress and loss reduction: Net loss narrowed to ($1.93M) vs ($2.44M) YoY; Adjusted EBITDA loss improved to ($1.61M) vs ($2.10M) YoY .
    • Clear strategic posture: Management launched a strategic alternatives review while focusing on expense reductions and inventory monetization, underscoring action-oriented approach in a tough macro .
    • Quote: “During the 3rd quarter, we continued to execute our plan to reduce inventory levels while maintaining our gross margin of about 61%.” – CEO Ezra Dabah .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Top-line pressure: Revenue declined 6.7% YoY to $3.39M, driven by a 15.4% decline in subscription boxes; shipped items fell 18% YoY to 292k .
    • Customer acquisition headwinds: Higher CAC tied to changes in cookie-tracking technologies pressured growth; management highlighted spending pullbacks in discretionary apparel .
    • Liquidity tightness: Cash ended Q3 at ~$60k; although working capital totaled $4.6M, the low cash balance raises near-term financing/execution risk .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023
Revenue ($USD Millions)$3.63 $4.03 $3.45 $3.39
Gross Margin (%)60.3% 59.8% 60.2% 61.1%
Net Loss ($USD Millions)($2.44) ($1.95) ($2.03) ($1.93)
Diluted EPS ($)($0.32) ($0.25) ($0.26) ($0.24)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)($2.10) ($1.65) ($1.70) ($1.61)
Versus S&P Global ConsensusN/AN/AN/AN/A

Notes: Management on the Q3 call cited a 7.4% YoY revenue decline, versus 6.7% reported in the 8-K; the 8-K values are used above . The call also referenced “keep rate for the second quarter was 82.6%” during the Q3 discussion—keep rate for Q3 per the 8-K is 82.6% .

Segment – Revenue by Channel ($USD Millions)

ChannelQ1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023
Subscription Boxes$2.97 $2.61 $2.43
3rd Party Websites$0.44 $0.43 $0.49
Online Website Sales$0.62 $0.41 $0.47
Total$4.03 $3.45 $3.39

Segment – Revenue by Product Line ($USD Millions)

Product LineQ1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023
Girls’ Apparel$3.05 $2.64 $2.60
Boys’ Apparel$0.79 $0.64 $0.64
Toddlers’ Apparel$0.19 $0.17 $0.15
Total$4.03 $3.45 $3.39

Subscription Boxes – Recurring vs New ($USD Millions)

Subscription TypeQ1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023
Recurring Boxes$2.40 $2.18 $1.97
New Subscriptions – First Box$0.57 $0.43 $0.46
Total Subscriptions$2.97 $2.61 $2.43

KPIs

KPIQ1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023
Shipped Items (000s)340 290 292
Average Keep Rate (%)68.1% 75.1% 82.6%

Liquidity Snapshot

  • Cash at quarter-end: ~$0.27M (Q1), ~$0.16M (Q2), ~$0.06M (Q3) .
  • Working capital: $6.6M (Q1), $4.9M (Q2), $4.6M (Q3) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY/Q4 2023NoneNone providedN/A
Gross MarginFY/Q4 2023NoneNone providedN/A
Operating ExpensesFY/Q4 2023NoneCompany “working to reduce expenses and overhead” New qualitative action
Strategic ActionsNear-termNoneFormal review of strategic alternatives initiated New

No formal numerical guidance was issued in Q3 materials .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Inventory & Cost DisciplineQ1: Reduced inventory by $1.5M; focused on cash flow and efficiency . Q2: Continued focus on reducing inventory purchases .Continued reduced purchases; increase sales from elevated inventory to support cash flow .Consistent execution; ongoing inventory monetization.
Gross Margin~60% GM in Q1 (59.8%) and Q2 (60.2%) .GM 61.1% (+80 bps YoY) .Slight expansion with stable pricing/mix.
Demand/MacroLimited explicit macro commentary in Q1/Q2; emphasis on channels/mix .Noted pullback in discretionary spend; higher CAC due to cookie changes .Macro headwinds intensifying; marketing efficiency challenged.
E-commerce & DirectQ1: Online sales +112% YoY . Q2: Shop sales +72% YoY; UX/brand elevation .Pushing proprietary brand via own site; launched holiday website .Continued push to owned DTC to offset subscription softness.
Strategic AlternativesNot discussed in Q1/Q2.Formal review process initiated (including potential combinations/asset sales) .New development; potential catalyst.
Subscriber BehaviorKeep rate improved in Q2 (75.1%) .Keep rate 82.6%; shipped items down YoY .Quality of keeps rising; volumes lower.

Management Commentary

  • Strategic focus: “Reduce expenses and overhead, sell off inventory, and workforce reduction… initiate a formal review process to evaluate strategic alternatives” .
  • Operations cadence: “Our third quarter results were, for the most part, consistent with our second quarter results.” .
  • Margin and inventory: “Continued to execute our plan to reduce inventory levels while maintaining our gross margin of about 61%.” .
  • Channel priorities: “Working to increase our proprietary brand sales through our own e-commerce site… newly launched holiday website” ; “revamped websites… added new UX convenient features” .

Q&A Highlights

  • The available Q3 transcript contains prepared remarks from management; a Q&A section was not included in the retrieved content .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global (Capital IQ) Wall Street consensus estimates for revenue/EPS were unavailable for PIK for Q3 2023 and prior quarters via our tool, so we cannot determine beat/miss versus consensus. As a result, no estimate comparison is provided.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Strategic review introduces optionality; any transaction update could be a stock catalyst in the near term .
  • Core subscription revenue remains pressured, but higher keep rates and owned-site growth point to healthier unit economics on retained demand .
  • Liquidity is tight (cash ~$0.06M at quarter-end); execution on inventory monetization, expense reductions, and potential financing remains critical .
  • Gross margin resilience (61.1%) amidst softer volumes supports the thesis that merchandising/curation and channel mix are offsetting some demand headwinds .
  • Customer acquisition is challenged by changes in cookie tracking; shifting spend toward owned channels and UX improvements is strategically sound but may take time to scale .
  • Near-term, results likely track operational self-help (inventory sell-through, cost cuts) more than top-line acceleration; watch subscription trends and owned-site momentum over holiday .
  • No guidance and no consensus estimates heighten uncertainty; keep focus on cash runway, working capital execution, and any developments from the strategic alternatives process .